Luxembourg vs Estonia

Luxembourg face Estonia in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 5) on Friday 13 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC at Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

Luxembourg are 4th with 3 points from 4 games, while Estonia are 2nd with 6. That leaves Estonia 3 points ahead.

Luxembourg have scored 2 and conceded 7 in their last 4 matches, with 2 going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 1. Estonia have scored 2 and conceded 1 in their last 4 matches, with 0 going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 1.

Luxembourg come into this fixture with a recent record of 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats, while Estonia have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in the same window. Luxembourg currently sit 4th on 3 points, with Estonia placed 2nd on 6 points. The model expects a tight fixture, supporting the Under 2.5 selection. The Under 2.5 Goals selection (Under 2.5) is assigned a 63.69% probability at odds of 1.57.

• Estonia have the better recent form (9 pts vs 3 pts from the last 5 matches).
• League positions: Luxembourg 4th, Estonia 2nd.
• Luxembourg have won 0 of 2 home matches in this competition.
• Estonia have won 0 of 2 away matches in this competition.
• Market rationale: the model leans towards a low-scoring game for Under 2.5.

• 2 of Luxembourg's last 4 matches went over 2.5 goals.
• 0 of Estonia's last 4 matches went over 2.5 goals.